This guest post is from Tommy “Sully” Sullivan, Regent Family Law student:
1979 stands out as a
climactic year in family law as it produced the highest divorce rate
in United States history. However, after the 1979 peak, divorce rates in the
United States experienced a steady decline.
1979 was also a monumental year for United States diplomacy, as President Jimmy
Carter, under Article II of the Constitution, granted recognition
to the People’s Republic of China after decades of non-recognition. Could these
seemingly unrelated events be related?
First, one must
understand the state of the family and family law leading up to 1979. In the
1960s and 70s, United States federal and state laws made marriage more
equitable, divorce easier to obtain, and educational and employment
opportunities more available to women. Ten years before 1979, California passed its Family Law Act of 1969,
ironically signed by a key figure of national policy in the 1980s,
then-Governor Ronald Reagan. The Act introduced the first no-fault divorce law in the United States and other states soon followed until New York became the
final state to permit them in 2010.
But the rise of
no-fault divorces was not the only change taking place. Perhaps the most
monumental law of the 20th Century was the Civil Rights Act of 1964,
which outlawed discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national
origin in employment and accommodation. These changes were followed up by the Education Amendments Act of 1972,
which outlawed discrimination based on sex in education programs that received
federal funding. Both laws inevitably made it easier for women to enter the
workforce and academia.
Understanding the
familial impacts of Chinese-American relations must also be put into the
context of family relations leading up to 1979. This period was 24 years before
Massachusetts became the first state to legalize gay marriage after Goodridge v. Department of Public Health and 36 years before Obergefell v. Hodges,
which legalized gay marriage nationally in the United States. Therefore,
marriage is understood to be between a man and a woman prior to and during this time.
Following a period of decline in the 1950s, marriage rates began to rise in the
late 1960s until they largely soared in the 1970s.
By 1979, marriage rates were at 10.4%
and remained relatively stable through the mid-1980s.
1979 also represented
the peak of the manufacturing industry in the United States, which represented 22% of all non-farm labor jobs,
the highest of any labor category. A married man in 1979 was more likely to
work in this industry than any other profession, with a record-high 19.5 million manufacturing jobs
reported in that year.
After the
United States opened the economic door to China, however, the factories that made America work
soon started to close their doors.
How America worked soon began to change, as did who got married. Since 1979,
physical skills have become less in demand than social and analytical skills.
In particular, two of the career fields that are experiencing rapid growth in education and health services,
both of which require social and analytical skills. With the increasing demand
for these skills comes increases in wages as the market has become increasingly
competitive. From 1990-2015, both fields grew by 105% and 99%,
respectively. On the other hand, manufacturing declined by 30%.
Another key factor is that jobs within these two industries often require
higher education. Furthermore, women are more likely than men to secure these
kinds of jobs, accounting for 55% of employment in these areas.
Consequentially, from 1980-2015, women saw a 32% gain in average income,
while men saw a 3% reduction.
These numbers may
explain changes to marriage rates,
which have declined since the 1970s. From 1979 to 2018, the marriage rate
amongst “upper class” individuals fell slightly, from 84% to 80%.
Amongst middle-class individuals, the marriage rate fell from 82% to 66%
during the same period. Lower-income individuals fell from 60% to 38%.
Despite societal changes, the wealthy still get married while the less
wealthy are now much less likely to do so.
Although often
dangerous and grueling, the factory work offered stability for those in lower
economic classes. Steady employment and long-term job security, often
accompanied by a pension at the end of one’s career, were the norm. Today, the
individuals who would have worked in a factory are likely to work in service-based
jobs, which often do not come with the stability and security of jobs in the
past. Furthermore, life is getting expensive.
For example, whether
shelter is secured through a home purchase or rental, the rise in costs has
been profound. In 1980, the median home value in the United States was around $47,000,
which adjusts to roughly $188,000 in 2024. However, in 2023, the median home
sale price was $417,000,
around double the 1980 number. Because
many banks require 20% of the sale price for a downpayment, one would have to
include $83,000 down before even attempting to purchase the house. In 2024, the
median middle-class income is about $90,000
per year, while the median lower-income class comes in at around $29,000.
These numbers show that barring any outside help, a person would have to save
up to their annual pay just to enter the real estate market.
Middle to lower-income individuals have been hit hardest by this transformation of America’s economy. The
decreasing demand for physical labor has hit middle to lower-class men disproportionately.
Because fewer opportunities exist for long-term stability in employment, there
may be an increasing reluctance for individuals of those demographics to enter into marital
agreements. With fewer people in these categories getting married, the pool of
potential divorces has decreased significantly. Families and family law are indeed affected by international economic trends. Restoring those families should be a priority.
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